Market Pulse

Real-time macro intelligence for stock investors

Live

Composite of 2 signals

Yield Curve

—

Bank Spread

Volatility

—

Financial Stress

—

Job Claims

Composite of 2 signals

FRED data updated 4h ago

Unemployment

0.0%

→0.0

News Sentiment

-0.3

252 articles across 25 themes

Top Prediction

68.8% Yes

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

39 markets tracked · Polymarket

Macro Outliers

T10Y3M

0.69

-9.2%

ICSA

215000.00

+2.4%

GDP

31819.46

+1.3%

Top Predictions

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

$31.4M

68.8%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

$28.5M

57.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

$12.8M

21.5%

Hot Narratives

Healthcare Innovation Biotech

-4.7

7 arts

Defense National Security

-3.4

23 arts

Aging Population Senior Care

+2.5

2 arts

Macro Indicators

24 economic signals tracking US market stress

Interest Rates

Secured Overnight Financing Rate

3.65%

↑ 0.02 2026-06-01

Treasury Yields

DGS1

3.79%

↓ 0.01 2026-05-29

Yield Spreads

T10Y3M

0.69%

↓ 0.07 2026-06-01

Inflation & Growth

Gross Domestic Product

$31819.5B

↑ 396.94 2026-01-01

Unemployment Rate

4.30%

— 0.00 2026-04-01

Market & Credit Risk

Initial Claims

215.0K

↑ 5000.00 2026-05-23

Money Supply & Assets

WALCL

6704.4M

↓ 9260.00 2026-05-27

Prediction Markets

Live probabilities from Kalshi & Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Polymarket

Yes 39.5%No 60.5%

Vol: $2.5MEnds: Jul 30, 2026

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 68.8%No 31.2%

Vol: $31.4MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?Polymarket

Yes 45.5%No 54.5%

Vol: $372KEnds: Jun 30, 2026

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 48.5%No 51.5%

Vol: $216KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Polymarket

Yes 42%No 58.0%

Vol: $417KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 34.5%No 65.5%

Vol: $1.4MEnds: Dec 8, 2026

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 43%No 57.0%

Vol: $283KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 57.5%No 42.5%

Vol: $276KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Polymarket

Yes 21.5%No 78.5%

Vol: $12.8MEnds: Jun 29, 2026

Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 51%No 49.0%

Vol: $60KEnds: Jan 1, 2027

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Polymarket

Yes 71%No 29.0%

Vol: $1.8MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Polymarket

Yes 29%No 71.0%

Vol: $1.6MEnds: Jan 1, 2027

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Polymarket

Yes 75%No 25.0%

Vol: $3.1MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

AI bubble burst in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 24.9%No 75.1%

Vol: $2.9MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?Polymarket

Yes 57.5%No 42.5%

Vol: $130KEnds: Jun 30, 2026

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Polymarket

Yes 62.5%No 37.5%

Vol: $208KEnds: Jun 30, 2026

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Polymarket

Yes 62.5%No 37.5%

Vol: $113KEnds: Dec 30, 2027

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Polymarket

Yes 76.5%No 23.5%

Vol: $1.2MEnds: Dec 30, 2027

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 37%No 63.0%

Vol: $112KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

US recession by end of 2026?Polymarket

Yes 21%No 79.0%

Vol: $1.5MEnds: Jan 30, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket

Yes 75%No 25.0%

Vol: $569KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Polymarket

Yes 81%No 19.0%

Vol: $1.5MEnds: Dec 30, 2027

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Polymarket

Yes 21.5%No 78.5%

Vol: $697KEnds: Sep 29, 2026

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 26%No 74.0%

Vol: $304KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?Polymarket

Yes 10.5%No 89.5%

Vol: $4.3MEnds: Dec 30, 2027

Theme Intelligence

Investment theme sentiment from global news

Sentiment across 25 active investment themes. Click to expand.