Market Pulse

Real-time macro intelligence for stock investors

Live

Composite of 5 signals

Yield Curve

Bank Spread

Volatility

Financial Stress

Job Claims

Composite of 5 signals

FRED data updated 23h ago

Fed Funds Rate

0.00%

→0.00

10Y Treasury

0.00%

↑0.03

VIX

0.0

↓0.2

WTI Crude Oil

$0.00

↑2.38

CPI

0.0

↑2.8

Unemployment

0.0%

↓0.1

10Y-2Y Spread

0.00%

↑0.01

HY Credit Spread

0.00%

↑0.01

News Sentiment

-1.9

60 articles across 4 topics

Top Prediction

49.5% Yes

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

40 markets tracked · Polymarket

Macro Outliers

STLFSI4

-0.65

-168.7%

T10Y3M

0.62

+6.9%

ICSA

207000.00

-5.0%

Top Predictions

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

$28.0M

49.5%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

$19.5M

33.7%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

$15.2M

29.5%

Hot Narratives

Trade & Sanctions

-3.4

15 arts

Geopolitical Risk

-2.6

15 arts

Monetary Policy

-1.3

15 arts

Macro Indicators

24 economic signals tracking US market stress

Interest Rates

Federal Funds Effective Rate

3.64%

— 0.00 2026-03-01

Secured Overnight Financing Rate

3.72%

↑ 0.06 2026-04-15

MORTGAGE30US

6.30%

↓ 0.07 2026-04-16

Treasury Yields

DGS1MO

3.72%

↑ 0.01 2026-04-15

DGS3MO

3.71%

— 0.00 2026-04-15

DGS6MO

3.72%

↓ 0.01 2026-04-15

DGS1

3.70%

↓ 0.01 2026-04-15

DGS2

3.76%

— 0.00 2026-04-15

DGS5

3.90%

↑ 0.03 2026-04-15

DGS10

4.29%

↑ 0.03 2026-04-15

DGS30

4.89%

↑ 0.02 2026-04-15

Yield Spreads

T10Y2Y

0.54%

↑ 0.01 2026-04-16

T10Y3M

0.62%

↑ 0.04 2026-04-16

Inflation & Growth

CPIAUCSL

330.29

↑ 2.83 2026-03-01

Gross Domestic Product

$31422.5B

↑ 324.50 2025-10-01

Unemployment Rate

4.30%

↓ 0.10 2026-03-01

Market & Credit Risk

CBOE Volatility Index: VIX

18.17

↓ 0.19 2026-04-15

BAMLH0A0HYM2

2.85%

↑ 0.01 2026-04-15

BAMLC0A0CM

0.80%

↓ 0.01 2026-04-15

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

-0.65

↓ 0.41 2026-04-10

Initial Claims

207.0K

↓ 11000.00 2026-04-11

Money Supply & Assets

WALCL

6705.7M

↑ 11825.00 2026-04-15

$22667.3B

↑ 198.20 2026-02-01

DCOILWTICO

$100.72

↑ 2.38 2026-04-13

Prediction Markets

Live probabilities from Kalshi & Polymarket

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Polymarket

Yes 48.5%No 51.5%

Vol: $239KEnds: Jun 30, 2026

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Polymarket

Yes 46%No 54.0%

Vol: $750KEnds: Dec 31, 2027

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Polymarket

Yes 42.5%No 57.5%

Vol: $1.5MEnds: Dec 31, 2027

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Polymarket

Yes 59%No 41.0%

Vol: $1.5MEnds: Dec 31, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Polymarket

Yes 35.5%No 64.5%

Vol: $14.3MEnds: Apr 30, 2026

2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?: Democratic SweepKalshi

Yes 45%No 55.0%

Vol: $61KEnds: Nov 7, 2029

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 33.7%No 66.3%

Vol: $19.5MEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Polymarket

Yes 36%No 64.0%

Vol: $1.2MEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Polymarket

Yes 38.5%No 61.5%

Vol: $134KEnds: Jun 30, 2026

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Polymarket

Yes 34.5%No 65.5%

Vol: $116KEnds: Apr 30, 2026

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?Polymarket

Yes 65%No 35.0%

Vol: $90KEnds: Apr 30, 2026

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 34.5%No 65.5%

Vol: $110KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Polymarket

Yes 64.5%No 35.5%

Vol: $53KEnds: Dec 31, 2027

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Polymarket

Yes 29.5%No 70.5%

Vol: $676KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?Polymarket

Yes 69.5%No 30.5%

Vol: $252KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Polymarket

Yes 73.5%No 26.5%

Vol: $1.2MEnds: May 31, 2026

US recession by end of 2026?Polymarket

Yes 25.5%No 74.5%

Vol: $1.3MEnds: Jan 31, 2027

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?: Before 2030Kalshi

Yes 68%No 32.0%

Vol: $54KEnds: Jan 1, 2030

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 28%No 72.0%

Vol: $264KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?: Before 2030Kalshi

Yes 31%No 69.0%

Vol: $59KEnds: Jan 1, 2030

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 25.5%No 74.5%

Vol: $593KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Polymarket

Yes 27.5%No 72.5%

Vol: $138KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

ECB rate hike in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 72%No 28.0%

Vol: $95KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?: AnthropicKalshi

Yes 75%No 25.0%

Vol: $61KEnds: Jan 1, 2040

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?Polymarket

Yes 24.5%No 75.5%

Vol: $63KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

News Intelligence

Global narrative sentiment analysis

Global news sentiment across 4 stock-market-relevant topics. Click to expand.