Market Pulse

Real-time macro intelligence for stock investors

Live

Composite of 5 signals

Yield Curve

Bank Spread

Volatility

Financial Stress

Job Claims

Composite of 5 signals

FRED data updated 8h ago

Fed Funds Rate

0.00%

→0.00

10Y Treasury

0.00%

↑0.02

VIX

0.0

↑1.1

WTI Crude Oil

$0.00

↑6.75

CPI

0.0

↓1.4

Unemployment

0.0%

↓0.1

10Y-2Y Spread

0.00%

↓0.04

HY Credit Spread

0.00%

→0.00

News Sentiment

-0.1

216 articles across 29 themes

Top Prediction

84.1% Yes

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

37 markets tracked · Polymarket

Macro Outliers

STLFSI4

-0.88

-21.8%

T10Y2Y

0.37

-9.8%

DCOILWTICO

79.20

+9.3%

Top Predictions

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

$43.2M

84.1%

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

$15.5M

56%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

$8.7M

44.5%

Hot Narratives

Remote Work Digital Lifestyle

+5.6

2 arts

Consumer Spending Shift

+4.8

2 arts

Aging Population Senior Care

+3.4

1 arts

Macro Indicators

24 economic signals tracking US market stress

Interest Rates

Federal Funds Effective Rate

3.63%

— 0.00 2026-06-01

Secured Overnight Financing Rate

3.62%

↓ 0.02 2026-07-16

MORTGAGE30US

6.55%

↑ 0.06 2026-07-16

Treasury Yields

DGS1MO

3.76%

↑ 0.03 2026-07-16

DGS3MO

3.84%

↑ 0.01 2026-07-16

DGS6MO

3.94%

↑ 0.01 2026-07-16

DGS1

3.99%

↑ 0.02 2026-07-16

DGS2

4.16%

↑ 0.03 2026-07-16

DGS5

4.28%

↑ 0.02 2026-07-16

DGS10

4.57%

↑ 0.02 2026-07-16

DGS30

5.09%

↑ 0.01 2026-07-16

Yield Spreads

T10Y2Y

0.37%

↓ 0.04 2026-07-17

T10Y3M

0.70%

↓ 0.03 2026-07-17

Inflation & Growth

CPIAUCSL

332.57

↓ 1.41 2026-06-01

Gross Domestic Product

$31865.7B

↑ 443.19 2026-01-01

Unemployment Rate

4.20%

↓ 0.10 2026-06-01

Market & Credit Risk

CBOE Volatility Index: VIX

16.73

↑ 1.06 2026-07-16

BAMLH0A0HYM2

2.71%

— 0.00 2026-07-16

BAMLC0A0CM

0.78%

↓ 0.01 2026-07-16

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

-0.88

↓ 0.16 2026-07-10

Initial Claims

208.0K

↓ 8000.00 2026-07-11

Money Supply & Assets

WALCL

6743.0M

↑ 7419.00 2026-07-15

$23052.3B

↑ 247.80 2026-05-01

DCOILWTICO

$79.20

↑ 6.75 2026-07-13

Prediction Markets

Live probabilities from Kalshi & Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket

Yes 51.5%No 48.5%

Vol: $5.3MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 53.5%No 46.5%

Vol: $4.2MEnds: Dec 8, 2026

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Polymarket

Yes 54.5%No 45.5%

Vol: $4.5MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Polymarket

Yes 52%No 48.0%

Vol: $2.9MEnds: Jul 31, 2026

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Polymarket

Yes 45.5%No 54.5%

Vol: $408KEnds: Oct 28, 2026

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Polymarket

Yes 76.5%No 23.5%

Vol: $6.8MEnds: Jul 31, 2026

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Polymarket

Yes 40.5%No 59.5%

Vol: $343KEnds: Jul 31, 2026

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 53.5%No 46.5%

Vol: $119KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 49%No 51.0%

Vol: $58KEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?Polymarket

Yes 56.5%No 43.5%

Vol: $145KEnds: Dec 30, 2027

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Polymarket

Yes 62.5%No 37.5%

Vol: $322KEnds: Sep 15, 2026

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Polymarket

Yes 71.5%No 28.5%

Vol: $1.5MEnds: Dec 30, 2027

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?Polymarket

Yes 48%No 52.0%

Vol: $50KEnds: Aug 11, 2026

Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Polymarket

Yes 46.5%No 53.5%

Vol: $57KEnds: Dec 31, 2027

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Polymarket

Yes 27%No 73.0%

Vol: $1.6MEnds: Jan 1, 2027

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 84.1%No 15.9%

Vol: $43.2MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Polymarket

Yes 33%No 67.0%

Vol: $428KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Polymarket

Yes 19.5%No 80.5%

Vol: $2.6MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 62.5%No 37.5%

Vol: $78KEnds: Jan 1, 2027

Ledger IPO before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 11.5%No 88.5%

Vol: $6.9MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

AI bubble burst in 2026?Polymarket

Yes 16.2%No 83.8%

Vol: $2.9MEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Polymarket

Yes 82%No 18.0%

Vol: $1.9MEnds: Dec 31, 2026

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Polymarket

Yes 28%No 72.0%

Vol: $299KEnds: Dec 30, 2026

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Polymarket

Yes 17.5%No 82.5%

Vol: $1.1MEnds: Jul 31, 2026

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Polymarket

Yes 27%No 73.0%

Vol: $216KEnds: Dec 30, 2027

Theme Intelligence

Investment theme sentiment from global news

Sentiment across 29 active investment themes. Click to expand.